Australia could miss out on the economic gains promised by artificial intelligence unless businesses move beyond experimenting with AI and begin fundamentally changing how they operate, new Treasury analysis has warned.

While around two-thirds of Australian businesses report using AI in some form, fewer than one in 10 say they have adopted the technology significantly. Treasury describes the country’s uptake as widespread but shallow, raising concerns that businesses may not be positioned to capture the full productivity benefits of AI.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has described AI as potentially the biggest economic transformation of a generation, but says Australia cannot simply wait for the benefits to arrive. Businesses will need to invest in new processes, business models, management practices and workforce skills to turn AI access into measurable productivity gains.

So far, fears of widespread AI-driven job losses have not materialised in Australia. However, policymakers are closely watching overseas trends, particularly among young and entry-level workers, who could be among the first groups affected by automation.

For small businesses, the biggest obstacle may not be technology or cost, but knowing where to begin. With hundreds of AI tools available, many business owners lack the time, technical expertise or confidence to determine which solutions are genuinely useful.

At the same time, Australia is already experiencing a major investment boom in AI infrastructure. Data centre construction is expected to reach around $150 billion by 2030, although much of the investment will rely on imported technology and equipment.

Treasury estimates AI could potentially lift productivity significantly, but warns that Australia could also miss the opportunity if adoption remains slow.

The message for Australian businesses is clear: using AI occasionally is not the same as transforming with AI. The real economic gains will come from businesses learning how to embed the technology into the way they work.